Master's Thesis: Counterfactual Policy Introspection using Structural Causal Models

Abstract

Inspired by a growing interest in applying reinforcement learning (RL) to healthcare, we introduce a procedure for performing qualitative introspection and ‘debugging’ of models and policies. In particular, we make use of counterfactual trajectories, which describe the implicit belief (of a model) of ‘what would have happened’ if a policy had been applied. These serve to decompose model-based estimates of reward into specific claims about specific trajectories, a useful tool for ‘debugging’ of models and policies, especially when side information is available for domain experts to review alongside the counterfactual claims. More specifically, we give a general procedure (using structural causal models) to generate counterfactuals based on an existing model of the environment, including common models used in model-based RL. We apply our procedure to a pair of synthetic applications to build intuition, and conclude with an application on real healthcare data, introspecting a policy for sepsis management learned in the recently published work of Komorowski et al. (2018).